Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
Gov. Mary Fallin’s (R) approval numbers have never fallen below 58% during her term in office. In April, she had a 65% favorability rating, the second highest of any governor up for reelection next year, reports The New York Times.
“She’s stronger than goat’s milk,” says longtime Oklahoma political analyst Mike McCarville. “I don’t see a Republican challenger or even whether the Democrats can come up with a sacrificial lamb or not.” McCarville notes that she even looked strong in a Democratic poll he has seen.
“She’s in an incredibly strong position for reelection,” says former state GOP chairman Chad Alexander. “She has good relations with the legislature, where she once served, and as a result, has a record that includes tort reform, landmark worker’s compensation reform that changed it from an adversarial to an administrative system, and has cut the state income tax – all popular achievements in Oklahoma. There are no names out there to challenge her in the primary or even in the General Election.”
State Democratic Chairman Wallace Collins, however, sees some vulnerability on Fallin’s part. He notes that she has opposed building storm shelters in public schools, despite the terrible toll tornadoes have taken on the state, including school children.
“I don’t know how she could; she was more concerned about politics than saving lives… It’s a powerful campaign topic.” He also points out that after the tornadoes, “The governor said that the teachers were heroes, but she won’t raise their salaries. Our teacher pay is 49th in the nation.” Collins says he has talked to one state representative who is interested in this issue about running against Fallin, “but he was non-committal.”
Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Oklahoma University, says that at this point, “The Democrats don’t have a candidate. But someone will run… Much of the Democratic bench got creamed in [elections in] the last few years.” He adds, “Whoever the Democrats run will get 38% of the vote.” Gaddie adds, “The younger generation is almost all Republicans. That’s where the talent is right now.”
Discussing seemingly logical Democratic contenders, Gaddie mentions Democratic floor leader Scott Inman, but says he’s not yet term-limited and can wait until 2018. He also mentions former governor David Walters, as well as state Sen. Connie Johnson (D), an African American. “She’s full-force against all that social conservatives stand for. If she ran, “it would be a barn-burner,” says Gaddie. He also mentions state Rep. Joe Dorman (D), who is promoting school storm shelters. “We live in Tornado Alley,” Dorman said in a press release, “and this will happen again.” But none of these Democrats have given any indication that they are interested in challenging Fallin.
Beginning with her election to the Oklahoma House of Representatives in 1990, Fallin has steadily worked her way up the state’s political ladder, often becoming the first woman to serve in the office she won. She served both as a member of Congress, representing the 5th District (Oklahoma City, etc.) and as lieutenant governor before her election as governor in 2010, which she won with 60% of the vote. Despite allegations of an affair with a bodyguard when she was lieutenant governor, followed by a divorce, Fallin has remained popular in this very religious state.
Fallin has a good record with social conservatives. Last month, she received praise from National Right to Life for signing three anti-abortion measures that passed the legislature, including parental notification before abortions can be performed on a minor.
And despite some criticism over school storm shelters, Fallin gets good marks for handling the recent tornadoes in the state. “She has emergency management experience,” says Gaddie, pointing out that as lieutenant governor, she dealt with the Oklahoma City bombing as well as tornadoes. “She’s good substantively and stylistically,” he says. She supported a transfer of $45 million from the state’s “rainy day” fund to provide a series of tax exemptions and other benefits for storm victims. And in the storms’ aftermath, says Gaddie, “She was very gracious when President Obama came to visit.”
As things now stand, however, don’t expect a stormy election for governor next year. Likely Republican.
