Cook Political Report Sees Russell As 5th District Frontrunner

Here’s the publication’s recap of the race:

OK-05: OPEN (Lankford) – Central: Oklahoma City and suburbs
Solid Republican. Sophomore GOP Rep. James Lankford’s decision to run for Senate has generated a Republican free-for-all for this Oklahoma City-based seat. This is now the least Republican district in the state, but that’s not saying much: it gave President Obama just 41 percent in both 2008 and 2012, so it’s not in much danger of falling to Democrats. And so far, a made-for-Hollywood resume appears to be making the biggest splash on the GOP side.

This is the third time the 5th CD has come open in the past 10 years, and in both past instances a Republican runoff has decided matters. With such a crowded field yet again, there’s no reason to think that won’t happen again: if no candidate takes a majority in the June 24 primary, the race will be decided by an August 26 runoff.

At this writing, there are five serious GOP contenders: state Sens. Steve Russell and Clark Jolley, state Rep. Mike Turner, former state Rep. Shane Jett, and state Corporation Commissioner and former Edmond Mayor Patrice Douglas. Baptist pastor and former Rep. Jim Bridenstine (OK-01) aide Harvey Sparks is running, but isn’t regarded as a top tier prospect.

The filing deadline isn’t until April 11, so there’s always a chance more candidates could jump in. But the biggest name on the sidelines, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, just won a landslide reelection and took just 37 percent in the 2006 GOP runoff here against future Gov. Mary Fallin, so it seems unlikely he would enter.

So far, Russell’s biography has allowed him to stand out. In fact, it’s almost too perfect for a GOP primary audience. Russell was a leader in Evangelism Explosion growing up in Del City (an Oklahoma City suburb), attended Ouachita Baptist University on an Army Scholarship, and went on to a lengthy career as an Army Ranger that culminated in his command of the unit that captured fugitive Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003.

After being awarded a Bronze Star, Russell wrote a memoir entitled “We Got Him!,” became a motivational speaker, and got elected to the state senate in 2008 from a district just south of Oklahoma City. In 2012, after declining to run for reelection, Russell created a small rifle manufacturing business called Two River Arms. Russell does not live in the 5th CD, but is in the process of moving to Shawnee, which is in the 5th CD.

Russell calls himself a “faithful warrior” and isn’t shy about spreading pictures of him in combat gear. At a recent candidate forum, he said that he would cast every vote through the lens of “my Judeo-Christian ethic that is formed by my biblical view of the world, which is based upon my belief in Jesus Christ.” Russell has already met with the Club for Growth, and several other groups could potentially smell a winner and want to get involved.

Many GOP operatives see the June 24 primary as a race for the second runoff slot against Russell, and point to Douglas and Jolley as the two others likeliest in contention. Both Douglas and Jolley hail from Edmond, a strategically important northern suburb serving as a bedroom to much of Oklahoma City’s business community. Edmond seems the likeliest place to produce an alternative to Russell’s style and appeal.

Douglas, who practiced law for 13 years before leaving to join her family’s sheet metal business, was elected mayor of Edmond in 2009 and was reelected in 2011. In 2011, Gov. Mary Fallin appointed Douglas as a state corporation commissioner. Some question whether Douglas is up to the rigors of a district-wide campaign, but many say she will have plenty of allies in Oklahoma City’s business community.

Jolley, who was elected to the state senate in 2004, touts his social conservatism and his efforts to consolidate state agencies, and probably sports some of the highest name ID. But his role as Appropriations chair got him into hot water with the right, and according to one insider Jolley “got beat up pretty good” in a hard-fought 2012 primary to keep his job.

Jolley may also run into trouble with GOP primary voters for his past support of Common Core school curriculum standards – one of the most fiercely fought issues in the state at the moment – and his support for $40 million in funding to complete a controversial American Indian Cultural Center.

Many regard Jett as a promising up-and-coming legislator, but his problem may be geographical. Jett hails from Tecumseh in the rural eastern appendage of the 5th CD and has had trouble breaking into the Oklahoma County primary electorate, which makes up an overwhelming share of the vote. Jett ran in the 2010 open seat race and finished fourth with just 11 percent of the vote.

Turner, 27, is the “wild card:” he just entered the contest in early March pledging to spend $500,000 of this own money. In 2012, at age 25, he became a Tea Party success story when he upset an incumbent Republican legislator three times his age who had supported an expensive state capital renovation project. At a time many other Tea Party-backed challengers fell short, Turner’s $70,000 self-contribution made a big difference.

Turner is a mechanical engineer by training and touts himself as a business investor and consultant to investors in the automotive sector, and is running hard against Common Core standards for usurping local control over educational curriculum. But, some detractors deride Turner’s wealthy family background and accuse him of trying to “buy the race.”

With three months to go and no public polling so far, this race is wide open. It seems probable that Russell will earn one of the runoff slots, and Jolley, Douglas, or Turner could make a play for the other. Democrats appear likely to nominate state Sen. Al McAffrey, a well-liked grandfather and mortuary businessman who became Oklahoma’s first openly gay legislator in 2006, but don’t look for a competitive general election. Buckle up for a wild ride in the primary.