Randy Krehbiel
Tulsa World
It’s not often that a political party or campaign brags about a poll that shows its candidate down 13 points, but that’s what Oklahoma Democrats did this week.
The state party sent out a fundraising email headlining a poll showing incumbent GOP Gov. Mary Fallin at 44 percent.
What the e-mail didn’t mention is that the same poll has Democrat Joe Dorman at 31 percent.
The poll followed two others that had Fallin leading by 5 points and either 9 or 10 points, depending on whether “leaning to” responses are counted.
In an actual election, a 5- to 13-point margin translates into a fairly easy Fallin victory, end of story.
In the world of political number crunching, though, such poll results are reason for queasiness in an incumbent camp.
The Democrats’ e-mail was not just spin. An incumbent at 44 percent — or at anything less than a majority — is generally viewed as vulnerable.
The theory is that the public already knows the incumbent. If a majority isn’t on board, it’s looking for something different.
Dorman himself has said much of his early support is from people who just don’t want to vote for Fallin.
“I’m sure some of you don’t know who I am,” he said, half-joking, when he opened his Tulsa campaign office on Monday. “All you know is that somebody is running against Mary Fallin.”
Fallin’s sudden drop in popularity is probably associated with sharp reaction to some of her education initiatives, and, perhaps in some quarters, to perceived links to big business and the Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce.
The question now is whether those unhappy with Fallin are mad enough to actually vote for a Democrat — especially a largely unknown Democrat without anything close to the campaign resources of an incumbent governor — or whether they will return, however grudgingly, to the fold.
They could, of course, vote for one of the two independents in the race, or just stay home altogether; either case probably benefits Fallin.
All said and done, Gov. Fallin is likely to be re-elected by a safe margin. What the polls tell us is that the general public just might not be crazy about it.
