In the past, a special election wasn’t considered a barometer of a party’s strength. Recently, Republicans have had a difficult time retaining long-held seats in the Oklahoma Legislature. House District 46 was another shock to the system. The seat passed from popular Republican Scott Martin to the Democratic candidate Jacob Rosecrants instead of Republican Darin Chambers in the aftermath of the September 12 special election.
By the old standard, Chambers should have handily won the seat. He was a businessman, former military, and a family man. He possessed those desirable qualities which have been a Republican strong point. However, it seems a perfect political storm is swirling among Oklahoma voters. House District 46 is a strong GOP district with some precincts playing home to twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats.
Republicans have won only one special election race in the past year. Some blame President Trump. Some blame scandals. Others believe the root problem is the perception that Republican leadership can’t handle governing because of budget failures and a lack of a teacher pay raise.
One of Oklahoma’s top pollsters, Pat McFerron of CMA Strategies believes the Democrats have taken a page out of the Republican playbook.
“Democrats are generating intensity with Trump the way Republicans have with Obama and before that a Clinton,” McFerron told The McCarville Report.
He believes the Republicans’ majority is safe for now.
“This is still not a statewide phenomenon. These are suburban seats,” McFerron added.
Holly Gerard of New Valley Forge Partners advised Chamber’s campaign for the House District 46 seat. She feels this special election was a test for Republicans.
“When the Democrats won the two special elections in July, those victories could have been dismissed as an anomaly because of the unseemly circumstances under which the previous officeholders had resigned. The House District 46 special election was the litmus test to determine whether this was a genuine statewide political shift. So the stakes were very high for the Oklahoma Republican Party,” Gerard told The McCarville Report. “Knowing that, whether due to a summer/back to school schedule, or still a sense of invincibility due to our sizable GOP majority, our side still exhibited a significant complacency and lack of will to participate in campaign activities. I am thankful to several who worked very hard, especially in the Cleveland County GOP group, but various factions within the party did not engage behind the nominee, and the nominee was not endorsed by all previous GOP candidates.”
In a way, Gerard agrees with McFerron’s assertion that the Democrats have taken up division tactics for special elections.
“This was a way the Democrats won in my native Northeast – divide and conquer by highlighting loudly the divisions amongst Republicans, however minor, as they know that the more that exit the Republican big tent in a race will guarantee that the “Lockstep Left” will win. The quality or lack thereof of their Democrat nominee was of no consequence if they could keep the conversation on the divisions on the Republican side. Republicans would then spend our valuable general election time trying to earn back our base, rather than drawing the key contrast distinctions that coalesce Republicans and socially conservative Democrats and create the winning coalition,” said Gerard.
It appears the Democrats have found a way to capitalize on frustrated Republican voters.
“This was not about the two candidates. This was a vote against the governing Republican majority because people don’t see things happening,” said Chad Alexander, KOKC Radio talk show host, Republican strategist and former State GOP Chairman.**
“There is no question that scandals subconsciously played a part in these things, but at the end of the day these races, when we talk to the winners and when we talk to the losers, we ask what are people saying on the door? They are saying fix the budget. They’re saying don’t cut my taxes anymore. We’re talking five of five Republican voters. They’re saying fix the budget, fund education, criminal justice reform,” Alexander added.
Gerard said Democrats doubled down on the House District 46 seat when they began to smell blood in the Oklahoma political waters.
“Oklahoma is a key target, and they played in the other recent special elections in our state as well as in HD-46. Handwritten postcards, Facebook pushes by the ‘keyboard commando’ set from out of state, digital campaigns and more helped to deliver their message. In addition, the Democrat Legislative Campaign Committee highlighted the Democrat nominee Rosecrants nationally as a “crucial victory” push. In the last several days of the election, Rosecrants was funded by thousands in special interest money and democrat donations, paid walkers, and an energized volunteer base on the far Left. The fact is, I’m not sure any Republican could have won in this election,” said Gerard.
She adds that polling in the race indicated the Democrats held the strong hand.
“Bill Shapard’s polling (Sooner Poll) was dead-on and played out: 58% of Oklahoma believe Democrats would handle education better. And if Republican lawmakers don’t address the budget appropriately, and live up to the values expectation the voters expect of them, the GOP will lose the advantages we still have.
“So the Democrats did not really win this election as much as the Republicans as a whole lost it,” said Gerard.
The Republican advisor feels it is time to look inward to find the way forward in getting Republicans back on an election winning streak.
“On every campaign I have managed, the vast majority of which are won, I always critique my own work. It’s the only way to improve. Losses are always painful but they also contain great lessons if you are willing to learn. I do believe I have an advantage in having been active in Northeast politics in the past, and the movements of the Democrats aren’t anything new – they are just new to Oklahomans. And hopefully the positives from the recent outcomes will help Oklahoma Republicans to realize it’s time to snap out of complacency – it’s time to join a fight that they need to realize is already underway. It’s also time for Republicans to communicate more effectively – both to our legislators as citizen activists, and to get active in campaigns to elect quality candidates – because if we don’t this trend will continue,” Gerard said.
Alexander believes Republicans should expect a challenge in retaining seats.
“It is going to be interesting to see what happens in Senate District 45. By all common political instincts and knowledge, you should absolutely believe the Republicans are going to hold the seat. That’s going to be another one to watch. I said if we lose House District 46, you need to ring the bell and say there’s a problem out there.
“If Republicans lose Senate District 45 or Senate District 37 in a general election, if they aren’t already clued in, they need to be in a little bit of panic mode; they should be terrified,” said Alexander.
Gerard said the GOP needs to put aside its differences and listen to what voters are telling them.
“With the feedback at the doors, it is a very evident need of Republicans to have a serious conversation on Party, purpose, principles, and a cohesive course of action moving forward. Until we talk and all voices are listened to, we will continue the path to a ‘divided and conquered’ caucus, and that is the death knell of a Party whose principles I believe are still Right.”
**Editor’s Note: Jason Doyle has appeared as a regular contributor to Chad Alexander’s radio show. They are now co-hosting an afternoon drive talk show together on KOKC Radio in Oklahoma City.
Let’s be clear: there was no out-of-state, “keyboard commando” push. There were not thousands of last-minute special interest contributions, nor we’re there ANY paid canvassers. All of us knocked doors because we believe in Jacob. We did it because he has real integrity and genuinely cares about the folks he wants to serve.
The Chambers campaign out-spent Jacob 2 to 1, full stop. The Chambers campaign sent out last-minute attack mailers (to Democrats, mind you) that were – besides being outright false – paid for by Betsy DeVoss’s Super PAC.
Jacob won overwhelmingly because he has tremendous character and his supporters sacrificed their time and money to help ensure voters in HD 46 knew it. It’s as simple as that. If this election result tells you anything at all, it’s that a trustworthy candidate who works hard will beat an opponent who puts easily-refutable lies (like the one on Darin’s door hangers that falsely claimed he was an OU Engineering Professor) any day of the week. The people of Oklahoma value integrity and work ethic. That’s why Jacob won.
Really??? I hate to spring the news on you,column writer, but there is a real desire in the State of Oklahoma to replace the current members of the legislators with representatives and senators who actually represent us and not special interests. I am 77 years old and I walked many miles as did my friends to help Jacob because he represents what I desire to see happen in this state. I was joined by people of all kinds and ages and we rejoice that our votes made a difference. Poor Mr.Chambers was the face put forth for the national conservative agenda and he was unsuited for the job.