A combination of “off-the-top” funding and a quirk in the gross production tax led to September’s General Revenue Fund (GRF) deposits missing the estimate by 1.5 percent. However, the $545.1 million is 7.9 percent more than collected in the same month last year.
“The first quarter year-to-date numbers are running essentially flat at 0.7 percent above estimate. Additionally, strong gross revenue performance should not overshadow the fact that the FY 2019 budget was built on these estimates that we are currently matching,” stated Office of Management and Enterprise Services (OMES) Director Denise Northrup. “Simply put, the numbers we are seeing are not currently indicating FY 2019 will produce a windfall.”
Sales tax collections, while well below prior year, are in line with the estimate because of the anticipated transfer to the Oklahoma Department of Transportation per HB 3712, which temporarily redirected allocations totaling $29 million to the State Highway and Construction Maintenance Fund and the Oklahoma Railroad Maintenance Revolving Fund. The temporarily redirected allocations will conclude next month.
Sales tax estimates, like all monthly estimates, have anticipated economic growth and the fiscal impact of legislation factored into their estimates.
Gross production tax collections of $31.8 million were $2.2 million, or 6.5 percent, below the estimate and $9.5 million, or 42.7 percent, above the prior year. Notably, oil collections of $18,700 were $6.6 million, or 99.7 percent, below the estimate and $2.9 million, or 99.3 percent, below the prior year largely due to the timing of the apportionment changes affecting collections and should even out in the next few months.
Additionally, a transfer of $19.5 million was made to the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program (OHLAP).
“There were multiple factors that impacted collections in September, such as the OHLAP payment, the impact of the transfer as directed by HB 3712 and a timing issue with the gross production oil estimates,” said Northrup. “While a few reporting categories are missing estimates, there is nothing to indicate that estimates will swing to extremes in the coming months.”
The GRF is the main account used to hold legislatively appropriated money.
