Randy Krehbiel
Tulsa World
Fifth District Congressman James Lankford held a narrow lead over former Oklahoma Speaker of the House T.W. Shannon heading into the final week of their U.S. Senate primary campaign, according to the latest Oklahoma Poll.
Lankford led Shannon 41 percent to 38 percent in a survey of 415 likely voters in Tuesday’s election. The survey was conducted by June 14-18 by SoonerPoll.com and has a 4.81 percent margin of error.
{Another poll, taken for KWTV in Oklahoma City and News on 6 in Tulsa, showed this: James Lankford now has a lead over T.W. Shannon in a heated race to replace Sen. Tom Coburn, according to a News 9/News On 6 poll. The poll, taken June 19-21 (after the World poll), shows Lankford with 43.4 percent and Shannon with 34.9 percent, with 13.3 percent of likely Republican voters still undecided.}
Former state Sen. Randy Brogdon was at 3 percent, with the other four candidates on Tuesday’s ballot totaling 2 percent. Sixteen percent were undecided.
The poll results indicate a runoff between Lankford and Shannon is likely despite the low total for the other five candidates on the ballot.
Overwhelmingly, those surveyed said they wanted a “like-for-like” replacement for retiring U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn. Nearly two-thirds said it was “very important” to elect someone who would vote much the same as Coburn. Another 26 percent said it was “somewhat important.”
Respondents differed, though, on which candidate that would be. Forty-one percent said it would be Lankford, while 35 percent said Shannon.
Seven percent said it would be one of the other candidates, and 17 percent did not know.
“We’re a divided household,” said Larry Bell of Tahlequah. “My wife likes Shannon. I’m for Lankford. For me. Lankford’s been there, and I appreciate what he’s done. My wife, she’s heard some of things Shannon’s said, and they resonated with her.”
Republican voters, in fact, have a high opinion of both men. Fifty-nine percent said they had a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Lankford, which was just one point better than Shannon.
Conversely, just 15 percent had a negative opinion of Lankford while 17 percent viewed Shannon unfavorably.
“Neither one of us would be disappointed if our person didn’t win,” said Bell. “I just happen to think there’s more experience on (Lankford’s) side. It takes awhile, from what I’ve seen, to find your footing when you go in.”
Wanda Ellzey of rural Mayes County said she likes Shannon because, “He seems honest. He doesn’t seem like he’s a big a liar.”
All respondents were asked during the survey what their choices were based on. The most common answers involved being a conservative and a Christian, but a few mentioned Coburn. A few also said they liked Lankford because they saw him as the more moderate candidate.
But overall, those who identified themselves as very or somewhat conservative favored Lankford 44 percent to 38 percent. Brogdon, who has tried to build on his long-standing reputation as one of the state’s most conservative political figures, was the choice of only 3 percent of those identifying themselves as conservative.
Self-identified conservatives made up more than 75 percent of those surveyed.
A slightly smaller share came from the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metropolitan statistical areas, which is consistent with the statewide distribution of registered Republicans. Each MSA includes seven counties.
As one might expect, Lankford led Shannon by 29 points in the Fifth Congressional District. But, in the wider Oklahoma City MSA, Shannon had a 44-40 lead.
The opposite was true in northeast Oklahoma. Shannon led 41-35 in the First Congressional District, but trailed 42-35 in the Tulsa MSA.
The two were virtually even in the rest of the state.
A new poll says that Lankford has an 8 point lead in a just released channel 6 poll!
Yes, that is included in the story.
[…] had a 41-38 percent edge over Shanon, with 16 percent still undecided. Pollsters put their margin of error at 4.81 […]