Pat McFerron
President, Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates, Inc.
Mary Fallin currently holds a 13-point lead over Democratic challenger Joe Dorman (44% Fallin vs. 31% Dorman), despite having seen her numbers fall slightly in the last four months.
The other three candidates who will appear on the ballot garner support from 4% of the voters.
In April, Fallin had a 15-point advantage, 52%-37%. Today, Fallin has a wide lead among men (48% Fallin vs. 26% Dorman) and narrowly leads among women (40% Fallin vs. 35% Dorman).
Republicans are more united behind Fallin (67%
Fallin vs. 9% Dorman) than Democrats are behind
their nominee (24% Fallin vs. 52% Dorman). Among
Democrats with an unfavorable impression
of President Obama – the key swing group in
general elections in Oklahoma – Fallin has a
12-point advantage (42% Fallin vs. 29% Dorman).
Interest areas in this election show voters
have aligned their electoral preferences with their
topics, for the most part. Among the 13% of voters
focused on moral issues, Fallin has a commanding
lead (70% Fallin vs. 12% Dorman). The same can
be said for the 19% whose focus is on efforts to stop
federal intrusion (65% Fallin vs. 10% Dorman). In
contrast, the 28% intent on societal issues like health
and education opt for Dorman (16% Fallin vs. 53%
Dorman) by a better than three-to-one margin.
The second largest voter bloc, those interested
in economic issues like taxes and jobs (22% of
voters) are evenly split (36% Fallin vs. 40% Dorman).
The ideological bases are also aligned with
candidates. Among the 32% of voters who consider
themselves supporters of the Tea Party, Fallin leads
72%-7%. Among the 32% who disagree with the
Tea Party, Dorman has a sizeable lead (11% Fallin
vs. 66% Dorman). Among the 30% neutral toward
the Tea Party, Fallin leads Dorman by a two-toone
measure (46% Fallin vs. 23% Dorman). While
some on the left may try to say those neutral toward
the Tea Party are in play, by almost any standard,
these voters are conservatives. This “middleground”
in Oklahoma opts for the Republican
over the Democrat on a generic ballot by 19 points
(46% Republican vs. 27% Democrat) and are
very negative toward President Obama (18%
favorable vs. 71% unfavorable), with 58% saying
they have a “strongly unfavorable” impression.
2
S O O N E R S U R V E Y
Key Facts
• Republicans are
more united than are
Democrats, but are
not as united as they
have been in recent
election cycles.
• Expect Republican
unity to rebound as the
national tide becomes
a referendum on
the President – the
historical trend during
the sixth year of a
presidency.
• Fallin has a
commanding lead
among the critical
swing groups in
Oklahoma.
• Fallin leads among
anti-Obama
Democrats 42%-29%.
• Fallin leads among
those “neutral” toward
the Tea Party 46%
-23%.
Governor Election Survey Question
1. If the election for Governor were held today, would you be voting for:
(Rotate)
Mary Fallin, the Republican……………………………….. 44%
Joe Dorman, the Democrat………………………………… 31%
Richard Prawdzienski, an Independent……………… 1%
Joe Sills, an Independent……………………………………. 1%
Kimberly Willis, an Independent…………………………. 2%
Undecided (vol.)………………………………………………… 22%
