Donald Trump continues to widen his lead over Hillary Clinton, the newest Sooner Survey reports:
Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in the Sooner State and perhaps more importantly, he has dramatically improved voters opinion of him. Trump now holds a 24-point lead over Secretary Clinton and is now viewed favorably by a majority of Oklahoma voters.
In an early May poll, Trump had a 20-point lead (48% Trump vs. 28% Clinton) but only 38% of Oklahomans had a favorable impression of the Republican nominee. Today, Trump garners 53% of the vote and has increased his favorable 12 points while decreasing his negative by nine, for a net change of 21-points.
Most of Trump’s favorable movement has occurred among registered Republicans. In May, only 54% of registered Republicans said they had a favorable impression of Trump. Today, 74% of Republicans in Oklahoma have a favorable impression of him. Similarly, his unfavorable among Republicans has dropped from 32% to 19%. Trump now has positive favorability numbers in both the Oklahoma City and Tulsa media markets, but his greatest strength remains in the 14% of the state covered by other media. In those areas combined, Trump is a 58% favorable / 36% unfavorable.
SOONER SURVEY
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has seen her already abysmal numbers get slightly worse. Now at a 29% favorable / 65% unfavorable, Clinton has dropped a net of four points since May (31% favorable / 63% unfavorable). Perhaps most striking is that 55% of Oklahomans say their opinion of the Democrat nominee is “strongly unfavorable.” Clinton unites Republicans: 92% have an unfavorable impression of her. Meanwhile, she divides registered Democrats (54% favorable; 37% unfavorable). In rural Oklahoma, 72% have an unfavorable impression of the former first lady. To put this in perspective, Clinton holds almost identical numbers to what we have seen for President Barack Obama in Oklahoma.
Obama’s favorable rating in the state has been between 25% and 29% for six years now, with his unfavorable rating ranging from 60% – 65% during that time.
The lead for Trump on the ballot test has also widened just a bit, up to 24 points instead of 20 in May. Gary Johnson has increased his percentage from 6% in May to 10% today and only 9% of Oklahomans remain undecided.
Republicans are largely united behind Trump – he now garners 81% of the vote while Clinton is at 5%. Trump actually garners more than a quarter of registered Democrats while Clinton garners only 54% of those in her party.
The changing nature of Oklahoma’s urban centers is evident in that they are clearly the most competitive area of the state. In central Oklahoma, Trump’s lead is only eight points (46% Trump; 38% Clinton) and it is only nine in the Tulsa metro region (47% Trump; 38% Clinton). In all other areas of the state, Trump dominates. In the rural southwest, Trump has a 50-point lead (64% Trump; 14% Clinton) – though that is a smaller cell size. In the rural northwest, Trump is up a similar 48 points (63% Trump; 15% Clinton). It is only slightly better for Clinton on the eastern side of the state. In the southeast, she trails by 40 points (60% Trump; 20% Clinton) and by 27 points in the northeast (53% Trump; 26% Clinton).
Given the geographic differences, one might expect a strong age line on these numbers – but that is not the case. Trump holds a 28-point lead among those under 45 years of age (51% Trump; 23% Clinton; 16% Johnson) and 25 among those over the age of 65. With this fact, it will be difficult for state Democrats to make any case that they can see any light at the end of any tunnel. The transition is really that Democrats in Oklahoma are becoming an urban only party. Republicans need to recognize this fact else they risk dominating statewide elections but being more competitive than they expect in their traditional bases of the state’s two great metro regions.
KEY FACTS
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Trump now leads by 24-points statewide and is viewed favorably by a majority of Oklahomans.
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Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers are virtually identical to those we have recently recorded for Barack Obama. Clinton unites Republicans in opposition to her.
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Trump dominates in rural Oklahoma and has a more than 45-point lead in both northwest and southwest Oklahoma.
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Trump still leads, but that lead is in single digits in the two great metro areas of the state.
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Voters under 45 are just as supportive of Trump as are senior citizens.
SOONER SURVEY
The 2016 presidential contest gives us a great lens through which to view the changing Oklahoma landscape. It is very clear the future of competitive races in Oklahoma lie in the metro areas, not the rural ones. We also see younger voters are not rejecting Trump – but are rejecting the two-party system. Support for Gary Johnson steadily decreases as age increases. The real question about the viability of third-party candidates will be if these younger voters maintain this dissatisfaction as they grow older, or if they move toward acceptance.
During his more than 20 years with Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, Pat McFerron has supervised polling and telephone voter contact programs in more than 40 states – including polling for numerous successful gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, congressional and legislative clients throughout the nation. McFerron has been the pollster for all of the recent successful OKC initiatives, including Big League City, MAPs for Kids and MAPs 3, as well as Oklahoma’s historic right-to-work effort and many other state questions. McFerron also oversees marketing research projects for CHS clients who range from Fortune 100 companies to non-profits, universities and entrepreneurial start-ups.
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates, Inc.
Phone: (405) 415-3017
E-Mail: Pat@chs-inc.com
SOONER SURVEY
This edition of Sooner Survey was taken Sept. 19-23, 2016. It was a telephone survey of 500 registered voters in Oklahoma, including those on mobile lines. The confidence interval associated with this sample is that 95% of the time, the results are within a 4.3% of the true values
Sooner Survey: The Questions
Now I want to read you a list of names. For each one, please tell me first if you have heard of the person, then if so, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. (After response, ask: Would you say you have a strongly (favorable / unfavorable) impression of that <name>? (Randomize Names)
Strongly Favorable
Somewhat Favorable
Somewhat Unfavorable
Strongly Unfavorable
Heard of No opinion
Never Heard of
1.Donald Trump
33%
17%
9%
34%
7%
–
2. Hillary Clinton
16%
13%
8%
58%
6%
0%
3. If the election for President were held today, would you be voting for:
53% Donald Trump 29% Hillary Clinton 10% Gary Johnson 9% Undecided
