UPDATED
Tuesday’s upset victory in House District 85 by Democrat Cyndi Monson over Republican Chip Carter has many scratching their heads today and the reasons for the outcome are many. TMR has collected some of them.
One of Cyndi Munson’s advisers, Joe Hartman, told TMR, “This election was won on the ground. Not only did Cyndi tirelessly knock the doors of potential voters and constituents, we had a constant ground game from the very beginning. Between volunteers, field staff from the Oklahoma County Democratic Party, and employees of the campaign, we had people on the ground every day reaching out to voters and interacting with them. We don’t have the actual data from the Election Board yet, but I would guess that we bumped up Democratic turnout a little bit.
“Cyndi’s message of being an independent voice resonated with voters as well. She comes from a non-profit background and didn’t have the endorsements of the traditional political players. This actually boded well for her because people were willing to look past political party and vote for someone they trusted who would be honest and do the right thing at the State Capitol.
“Overall, it was the best campaign I’ve been a part of from start to finish. We were lucky to go up against an opponent who was just playing from the old political handbook when voters were looking for something new and different.”
Carter’s primary campaign manager, Jennifer Carter, told TMR, “There were many factors at play:
“1. Republican voters were fatigued. After a hard fought 4 way primary with lots of mail, phone calls, and door knocks, many just wanted it to be over.
“2. Many assumed it was over after the primary. Since the HD 85 seat has been held by a Republican for many years, it was assumed to be a safe seat.
“3. The election held the day after a holiday made it even more challenging to remind folks to get out and vote.”
Dena Drabek managed Carter’s general election campaign.
GOP consultant Trebor Worthen: “Special elections are always so dependent on who turns out. It’s difficult to know exactly what happened until you can get the election board data that will tell you who turned out, but I would suspect the voter universe leaned more Democratic than it would in a typical general election setting.
“One thing we know for sure is that money was not a factor. The Carter campaign raised nearly $200,000 according to the latest available ethics reports, compared to less than $100,000 for Munson. Spending by outside independent expenditure groups favored Carter heavily as well.”
Cyndi Munson
Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave & Snodgrass Associates, told TMR, “A few points about HD85. First, in 2015, this is not the “Safe Republican” seat so many people want to make it out to be. Yes, historically it has been a Republican seat, but the Republican generic ballot advantage was in single digits at the start of the race compared to more than 20 points statewide. I have not looked at specific numbers for this seat, but do know that the entire CD5 has steadily seen its support for Democrat presidential candidates increase. In 2012 a greater percentage vote for Obama than did in 2008, and in 2008 a greater percentage of CD5 voters supported Obama than had Kerry in 2004. I think any full transformation is still decades away, but we are on a path for our urban areas to vote for more Democrats while our rural areas become more solidly Republican.
“Additionally, this was a special election in which the Democrat constituency was more motivated. In this smaller turnout – less than 5,000 voters – those believing the state is going in the wrong direction will be more vocal and more active. Those satisfied have less motivation. In 2014, 11,770 people voted in this seat. That means almost 7,000 voters did not show-up for the special. If they do, the generic advantage for Republicans likely takes hold. With a presidential race, if the Republicans find a viable candidate (and Carter would still be one) to run in 2016 when you would expect close to 14,000 people to vote in this seat, Munson could be a very short-tenured legislator.
“Two other points should be made: One, Cyndi Munson worked hard and had more than a year head start. By all accounts she worked hard in 2014 and it paid off in 2015 when she continued to work hard. This is not to say the Carter team was not active (they proved their ability in the Republican primary). Second, there is a developing fissure within the Republican primary electorate and I can think of few, if any, legislative seats, where this would be more prevalent than HD 85. There continues to be a growing disconnect between upper-income Republicans and those categorized as Tea Party adherents. In big elections, this is masked by their shared disdain for Obama or their support for a top-of-ticket Republican like Lankford, Fallin or Inhofe. Some of the issues where those in Republican households earning more than $100,000 a year start to break away deal with their opposition to eliminating the state income tax; they favor taking federal funds for Medicaid expansion and they believe the party spends too much time on social issues like fighting against gay marriage and they support wine in grocery stores at a higher rate. They will still vote Republican on the federal level, but they clearly sat out this election and the reason for this has more to do with their concern for the Republican brand than anything to do with Chip Carter (our polling really saw this gap widen and solidify after the last federal government shutdown).”
Rep. Paul Wesselhoft took aim at his favorite target, the group that tried to defeat him last year: “Democrat Cyndi Munson beating Republican Chip Carter is a huge defeat for the Oklahoma State Chamber of Commerce! Paying members need to fire Fred Morgan!”
Andrew Rice posted this photo of Munson and her father on election night
A GOP consultant who did not want his name used: “Carter’s campaign was good, he just never caught fire. Munson outworked him, I think. And the far-right Republicans sat on their hands. The perception of the GOP under Brogdon didn’t help, either. Bottom line though, is that voter turnout was low and that hurt Carter.”
One anonymous operative said many are blaming the State Chamber of Commerce for encouraging insiders like Carter, and said the business community will continue to lose as long as the chamber staff interferes in the process. Public school advocates also were saying that Carter was the consummate school choice candidate, and former superintendent Janet Barresi’s campaign manager ran Carter’s primary race and they said the loss inside the movement’s urban base was devastating. The education network also said Republicans lack a solid vision for education which hurts with younger female voters in particular.
“Grassroots” activist and outspoken education reformer Linda Murphy offered Facebook thoughts that prompted some to comment, even gloat, about Carter’s loss and point fingers at Carter over his defeat of “grassroots” candidate Ralph Crawford in the GOP primary:
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Oklahoma Democrats, Unions and Liberals are excited to win the House seat previously held by my friend, now deceased, David Dank -R.
The democrat candidate got out and knocked on doors, talked to people and had an on the ground team with her who were enthused about their candidate.
The republican candidate had paid consultants, the state chamber and the governor. The democrats have used that apparent Republican “hand picked” slick packed candidacy to build enthusiasm for their candidate. The republican didn’t bring anything to the door to door work that the majority of voters wanted. Reports are he didn’t do much door to door work. He did outspend his democrat opponent who beat him.
Are there enough Republicans to take a lesson from this loss? If we will take our issues to the public directly and value the grassroots work and workers in neighborhoods we can win future races that otherwise can be lost to Democrats who come across as more “genuine”.
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Cheryl Williams Yes the voters want genuine candidates and are sick of the ones who won’t take a stand in anything. Republican voters either didn’t care about the race or didn’t believe the republican candidate was sincere. Either way the democrat out worked the Republican. Goes to show the party leaders they need the grassroots voter more than the voter needs the party.
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Linda Murphy Exactly what I say Cheryl!! Hope some more Republicans are paying attention and see the wake up call that this is.
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Cindi Hampton The outright lies smear campaigns don’t work either. I saw some of the mailers that Carter put out about Crawford and they were outright lies. I have no use, nor will I support or campaign for any candidate that uses those tactics for personal or political gain. Even if they have an R by their name.
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Linda Murphy I did not see those mailers Cindi. If anyone has one I’d like to see it. You can send it to my email: lindalearn1@yahoo.com
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Ken Murphy He earned his Loss! He deserved to loose.
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Valerie Rega Rhodes What ruled the day makes me rue the day. If someone thinks losing this seat is a good punishment for the “establishment” I’m speechless. I’m speechless a lot.
McFerron says, “this is not the “Safe Republican” seat so many people want to make it out to be.” Yet the District is comprised of 58% Republican 42% Democratic (leaving out Independents). I wasn’t safe in this election – but I bet it is very rare to ever lose a seat with those percentages. Lots of excuses about what happened. I would like to see a list of every consultant that was involved helping Chip. Who was behind the dark money groups – seems like they didn’t know what they were doing either.
Hmmm. Seems that every time a republican loses a race the representative from Moore (Paul Wesselhoft) jumps up and cheers. Maybe it is time for him to caucus with the democrats.
If I recall correctly, Democrat Jennifer Seal almost won this seat in 2006. She ran an issues focused, grass roots campaign much like Cyndi Munson did this year. I think that while things like registration and turnout do matter I think that the candidate matching the district matters more. Here, a moderate, female, issues focused candidate who obviously is willing to reach across the aisle to get things done resonated with the voters in HD 85. I don’t expect this seat to flip back Republican at the next election absent some missteps by Ms. Munson.
[…] In addition, as Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave & Snodgrass Associates, told The McCarville Report “There continues to be a growing disconnect between upper-income Republicans and those categorized as Tea Party adherents. In big elections, this is masked by their shared disdain for Obama or their support for a top-of-ticket Republican like Lankford, Fallin or Inhofe… They will still vote Republican on the federal level, but they clearly sat out this election and the reason for this has more to do with their concern for the Republican brand than anything to do with Chip Carter.” Click here for more from The McCarville Report. […]