2018 Governor’s Race: Who’s Favored?

In three years, Oklahoma voters will select a new governor and although that election seems far distant, the speculation about Republican candidates is rampant.

Will Attorney General Scott Pruitt run? Congressman Jim Bridenstine? Lt. Governor Todd Lamb? How about Treasurer Ken Miller? How about Insurance Commissioner John Doak? How about…? The list goes on and on. But the three most often heard are those in focus today, Pruitt, Bridenstine, Lamb. The race likely will be hotly contested with numerous candidates and a likely runoff for the GOP nomination.

Any of those three could mount a formidable campaign and two of them, Lamb and Pruitt, are in the statewide public eye almost constantly with appearances, speeches and news releases.

How do voters view those three potential contenders?

To find out, The McCarville Report commissioned Bill Shapard’s SoonerPoll to ask about the 2018 governor’s race and he did so, in his most recent sampling of public opinion on numerous issues.

Jim Bridenstine ~ 18.8%
Todd Lamb ~ 32.6%
Scott Pruitt ~ 16.4%
Undecided ~ 32.2%

Lamb is popular statewide. He’s the runaway favorite in the 3rd Congressional District (41-13 over Pruitt, Bridenstine at 13.7%) and the 4th (52-15 over Pruitt, Bridenstine at 8.7%). He leads Pruitt 28.1-21.9 in the 5th District. Bridenstine leads in his home 1st District with 33.3%, with Lamb at 19.6 and Pruitt at 17.6. In the 2nd, Bridenstine leads with 31%, followed by Lamb and Pruitt, tied at 13.8 percent.

Examining strength by metro area, Bridenstine sweeps the Tulsa MSA with 30.4%, while Pruitt has 19.9 and Lamb has 16.1. In Oklahoma City,  Lamb has 41.6%, followed by Pruitt with 14.7 and Bridenstine at 10.3. In the rest of the state, Lamb has a solid lead with 37.6%, followed by Bridenstine with 17.6 and Pruitt with 15.3.

Lamb is the most popular with both males and females, this poll found; he was at 37.4% among males, 28.6% among females. Pruitt was at 22.2 and 10.7. Bridenstine was at 15.2 and 27.3.

Lamb was the favorite among somewhat and very conservative voters questioned. He and Bridenstine were also favored by voters age 25-34 at 37.5%. Pruitt was at 12.5%. In the 35-44 category, Lamb had 50%, while Pruitt and Bridenstine had 5%. In the 45-54 group, it was Lamb at 32.6, Pruitt and Bridenstine at 17.4. In the 55-64 group, it was Lamb 27.9, Pruitt 23 and Bridenstine 19.7. Among those 65 and over, it was Lamb 32.4, Bridenstine 21.1 and Pruitt 15.5.

The poll was taken in September of about 800 respondents. It should be noted that this far in advance, polls reflect only a moment in time and are not intended to predict an outcome.