By Mike McCarville
How wrong can a poll be?
In the 2nd Congressional District, so wrong it didn’t even qualify as a near miss. Nor a far miss. It’s conclusion the race was close simply was so far off the mark it makes one wonder about the methodology and the source. The result is crafted to create the impression the incumbent was in real trouble, claiming his opponent had been “catapulted” into the lead.
In Tuesday’s election, Congressman Markwayne Mullin absolutely creamed opponent Jarrin Jackson. It was a landslide for Mullin, 63 to 37 percent.
Just prior to election day, this poll “story” was posted by some blogs; please note that TMR did not use the story because we believed the source to be questionable.
Here’s the “story:”
Oklahoma Congressman Markwayne Mullin should have been set for an easy reelection campaign, but an exclusive poll conducted by InsideSources shows the race is unexpectedly tight leading into Tuesday’s primary. Moreover, the more voters know about each candidate, the worse it is for Rep. Mullin.
We found that the more likely voters found out about Rep. Mullin and Mr. Jackson, the more they tended to support the challenger, Mr. Jackson,” InsideSources publisher Shawn McCoy said. “Now it’s just a matter of whether Mr. Jackson has the time and resources to inform the voters.”
Mullin, a two-term Republican incumbent, is facing a primary challenge from Jarrin Jackson, a combat veteran who recently won the endorsement of Tom Coburn, the popular former senator. Mullin has also recently drawn strong criticism from conservative groups aligned against legislation he’s proposed to bring federal regulation to Mixed Martial Arts competition. In a conservative House district, these challenges from his right have left Mullin on shaky ground.
Our exclusive poll found Mullin leading Jackson 51.7 percent to 40.2 percent, with 8 percent undecided in initial polling.
However, InsideSources asked a series of follow-up questions about candidate biographies and the attacks being lodged by conservatives opposing Mullin. Mullin has been mute in criticizing his lesser-known opponent, so attacks on Jackson were not included. In this test, known as an “educated ballot,” which is intended to simulate how voters may react to what they hear in the media and from other voters leading up to the primary, Jackson was catapulted to a lead of 45.8 percent to 39.6 percent, with 14.6 percent unsure of how they will vote.
