Sooner Survey: Oppose Obamacare, Oppose Shutting Down Government

 Pat McFerron
The Sooner Survey

Oklahoma voters current display their adherence to the well-known Sir Francis Bacon quote of the “remedy being worse than the disease” – at least when it comes to the Affordable Care Act, known more familiarly as Obamacare.

While Oklahomans, save the most liberal of registered Democrats, vehemently oppose its implementation, they also display a strong opposition to shutting down the government in order to stop it. This opposition to shutting down government exists prior to any arguments being voiced. Once they are mentioned, we see voters embrace these reasons for not halting the federal government.

Fully 65% of Oklahomans oppose the implementation of Obamacare, while only 25% support it. The most striking number is that 56% “strongly” oppose implementation of the ACA. The issue of the Affordable Care Act unites Republicans (87% oppose implementation; 79% strongly oppose) and divides Democrats in the state (41% favor implementation; 45% oppose). Opposition is both deep and wide, as all age groups and income levels overwhelming oppose implementing the ACA. Only among the 28% of Oklahomans who describe themselves as “disagreeing with the Tea Party” do we see any group with a majority supporting implementation – and here it only reaches 61% with 30% still oppose. Among the 33% “neutral” toward the Tea Party, we see strong opposition to implementation (18% favor vs. 67% oppose). Of course, 93% of those supporting the Tea Party oppose implementation.

Despite being opposed to the implementation of the ACA, Oklahomans are strongly opposed to shutting down the government as a way to achieve that objective. Even among registered Republicans, a majority opposes shutting down the government. Only 36% of registered Republicans favor shutting down the government as a way to defund Obamacare, while more than half (51%) oppose doing so. Only 10% of registered Democrats favor shutting down the government.

Among those who “strongly oppose’ implementation of the ACA, almost half (49%) also oppose shutting down the government to stop it. Among those only “somewhat opposed” to Obamacare, 87% oppose shutting down the government.

The rub for Republicans in Congress is that while the base leans against shutting down government, there are some proponents. Among the 31% of Republicans who say they “always” vote for the most

S O O N E R S U R V E Y

conservative candidates in a primary, we see a majority favoring a shutdown (55%) while a third of these ultra-conservatives oppose a shutdown (32%). Even among the small group of self-avowed Tea Party members, a plurality (48%) leans against this tactic and only 41% support a shutdown. These numbers hold true when looking at the larger group of Tea Party supporters (39% favor a shut down; 49% oppose). Among those who have demonstrated a proclivity for actually voting in a Republican primary, we see majority opposition to shutting down government (36% favor a shutdown; 52% oppose).

The opposition to shutting down government is consistent throughout the state. Fully 71% of urbanites oppose shutting down the government, and they are joined by 58% of rural denizens. By congressional districts, we range from 58% of those in the Second Congressional District to 70% of those in the Third Congressional District. In the First Congressional District, 68% oppose shutting down the government.

All age groups and income levels overwhelming oppose shutting down the government. This is NOT a chamber Republicans versus grassroots Republicans issue. It is a “most voters” versus the “most vocal” issue.

When given options as to the best reason NOT to shut down the government, 81% offer a response – showing that at least this percentage of voters accept one of the arguments. Among registered Republicans, 80% accept one of these answers. Among Republicans, Senator Coburn’s opposition to shutting down government carries substantial weight. The most important point, however, deals with shutting off government payments to the military and seniors – 31% of Oklahomans say this is the best reason to avoid a government shutdown. While 19% defer to Senator Coburn’s expertise on the issue, another 14% point to the fact that past government shutdowns have not achieved their objectives and have just lasted for a few days without meaningful savings, while 12% are concerned about damage to the economy and 5% believe it will hurt Republican chances to take-over the U.S. Senate.

Even among the most conservative elements, we see acceptance of at least one of the arguments. Those self-identified as either a member or a supporter of the Tea Party, 74% acknowledge at least one of the arguments as being credible. Among those with a history of voting in Republican primaries, 80% select one of the options. Even among those Republicans who say they always vote for the most conservative candidate in a primary, only 36% impugn all of these reasons.

Even among those who initially favor a government shutdown, almost two-thirds relate to at least one of the arguments provided. Among those only somewhat supportive of a shutdown, we see tremendous acceptance of these arguments, as 94% make a selection.

This indicates that the percentage of respondents opposing a government shutdown could grow by simply talking about the issue and giving reasons why one should oppose shutting down the government. Among those initially supportive of a shutdown, we see great acceptance of three messages: that it would mean cutting pay to soldiers, seniors, and VA services; that it has not worked in the past; and that Tom Coburn does not think this is the right approach. Anyone working to argue against a government shutdown should focus on these three messages.

SEPTEMBER 2013

Do you support or oppose the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare?

Strongly support……………….16%

Somewhat support……………9%

Somewhat oppose……………9%

Strongly oppose………………56%

Undecided (vol.)………………10%

It has been proposed by some that Congress should shutdown government in an effort to defund the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. Do you favor or oppose shutting down the federal government as a way to stop the implementation of Obamacare?

Strongly favor………………………..17%

Somewhat favor…………………….6%

Somewhat oppose…………………5%

Strongly oppose……………………50%

Undecided (vol.)…………..12%3

SOONER SURVEY

Those who argue against shutting down the government provide a number of reasons for not shutting it down. Which of the following reasons for NOT shutting down the government do you think is the most convincing?

Shutting down the government would not stop the implementation of Obamacare.

When we have shutdown government before, it only lasts for a few days and then

the country demands things go back to normal…………………………………………………………………………………….14%

If Republicans shutdown the government, it will mean they will likely lose US Senate

seats in swing states, meaning that Obama and his allies will have two more years of

support for their liberal policies. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5%

If we shut down the government it will immeditately stop paying our soldiers and

their families, hurt our veterans, and hurt those on Social Security. It is wrong to

shut down VA hosptials and not pay those fighting wars……………………………………………………………………….31%

Shutting down the government would hurt our economy as all airplanes would be

grounded and other vital services needed for commerce would be shutdown……………………………………..12%

Tom Coburn is a conservative and a doctor who wants to stop Obamacare, and he says shutting down government is the wrong way to stop it………………………………………………………………….19%

Undecided (vol.)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….19%