A just-completed survey of the U. S. Senate race shows that former House Speaker T. W. Shannon has surged since he announced and while Congressman James Lankford still leads, he has dropped 14 percent while Shannon has gained 12 percent.
Former Senator Randy Brogdon has yet to gain any traction, showing only 7 percent support.
The survey was taken by Public Opinion Associates for a group backing Shannon, Oklahomans For A Conservative Future.
It is the first current survey to be released that includes Brogdon. An early February Tarrance survey found Lankford far ahead. It was taken just as Shannon entered the race and before Brogdon announced.
POA’s Glen Bolger shared his memo on the survey:
TO: OKLAHOMANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE FUTURE
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS –A just-completed U.S. SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY
DATE: MARCH 18, 2014
Key Findings
1. T.W. Shannon has closed the ballot gap from 35 points to single digits over the last month.
In a February 9-11 survey of likely GOP primary voters, T.W. Shannon trailed James Lankford 16%-51%, with 2% for other candidates and 32% undecided. Since then, the campaign has run an introductory positive ad, and then Oklahomans for a Conservative Future has also run a positive ad for the past two weeks. The TV advertising has been reinforced by direct mail.
The positive messaging has dramatically changed the status of the race. Shannon has knocked 26 net points off of Lankford’s lead. The deficit is now just 28%-37%, with 7% supporting new entrant Randy Brogdon, and 3% voting for one of four other candidates.
Lankford’s vote has dropped 14 points, while Shannon gained a dozen points.
Underscoring the impact of messaging on behalf of Shannon, among primary voters who are favorable to the Tea Party, the ballot is now just a 32% Shannon/36% Lankford deficit.
2. Shannon’s favorables have skyrocketed, while Lankford’s image is unchanged. Shannon’s name ID has increased from 59% to 74% during that time frame. More importantly, his favorables have increased from 30% to 48% while his unfavorables are statistically unchanged, going from 4% to 5%.
Lankford remains well regarded by Republican primary voters, as his image is unchanged since the February poll. In February, Lankford had 79% name ID, with 56% favorable/5% unfavorable. His numbers are unchanged – 79% name ID, with 54% fav/6% unfav.
3. Sarah Palin’s endorsement is extremely helpful. Palin, who endorsed Shannon last week, has a strong image with the key target group. She has a 75% favorable/14% unfavorable image with Oklahoma GOP primary voters.
The Bottom Line
After starting the campaign as the equivalent of an NCAA Cinderella-wannabe, T.W. Shannon has become the momentum it takes to beat the number one seed, represented by James Lankford.
Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present Oklahomans for a Conservative Future with the key findings of a telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters conducted statewide in Oklahoma. The survey was completed March 16-17, 2014 among 500 likely GOP primary voters, including 100 interviews with cell phone respondents, and has a margin of error of +4.38 in 95 out of 100 cases.
I think we can agree that James Lankford is a good man but he has not voted like a Conservative since becoming a congressman.
A very Christian attitude. Wouldn’t vote for him because of his duplicity once in office… as you noted.
I saw him on a newscast saying that states who opted out of Obamacare should be allowed to proceed….and those who didn’t, should be able to “keep their Obamacare.” What happened to repealing Obamacare? You can’t leave a cancerous mailignancy in place, when the patient can survive if it’s removed! Otherwise, he will die!
I agree. Many Christians will vote on Lankford solely because of name recognition or the fact he is a Christian Shannon is a Christian as well. Lankford voted to continue NSA funding and has not voted with conservatives with other issues. Shannon needs to know up front we don’t want him to “go along, to get along” I believe this is what Lankford has done in order to get a committee chair. We’re paying attention now!
I think we can all agree that Shannon is a moderate who panders to conservatives when he needs to. Look at Shannon’ record in the House before he became Speaker.
Well we know for sure that James Lankford will not curb spending or repeal Obomacare. Time to take out the trash and try the new guy. We can always vote him out as well.
Ridiculous…he has voted to repeal ObamaCare time and time again…it is uneducated voters like you who scare me. How can he ‘repeal’ ObamaCare when every bill passed by the House (of which Lankford is a member) will not be heard by the Democratic Controlled Senate? By that same token every Republican member of Congress needs to be voted out. Ted Cruze, Rand Paul, Bridenstine…the works because they also have failed to ‘repeal ObamaCare’…
Check the scores at Heritage Action. Lankford has a higher conservative score [83] than Tom Coburn [[81] and Markwayne Mullen [63], which is not too bad. Congressman Bridenstine leads the pack comfortably at 95, but compared to the others in the Oklahoma delegation, James Lankford comes out rather well.
Those Heritage action figures you quote are from the first quarter. Lankford has consistently run in the mid to high 70’s for the last three years, when you average Heritage, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity and FreedomWorks.
So who is this “Oklahomans for a Conservative Future” group? Interesting how they pay for a poll on the US Senate race but they have already started running commercials supporting T.W. Shannon!!!
Who are these people? Why won’t they tell the voters WHO is in this group? What company, individual or chambercrat is running things behind scenes of this group? Where do they get the money? Is it a front group for a George Soros type? So many questions…. and no answers!
As the old saying goes…. follow the money! I just want to know WHO is funding all of these “independent” expenditures!!!! If you can’t show your face, why should we believe a thing you say!
Xavier Neira, vice president of Manhattan Construction, and Chad Alexander and Stephanie Milligan of Capitol Insight are the sole incorporators of Oklahomans for a Conservative Future, according to publicly-available files on the Oklahoma Secretary of State’s website. The corporation registered with the state on Feb. 5, just days after Shannon declared his candidacy. It has already spent a little more than $200,000 on TV ads, first reported by Bloomberg, touting the former House Speaker as a “conservative champion” of “life, the Second Amendment and our Constitution.” The balance of its spending so for, about $100,000, paid for direct mailings supporting the candidate, according to records collected by Sunlight’s Real-Time FEC.
Just one paragraph from this article:http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2014/03/13/see-whos-pulling-the-strings-of-oklahomas-new-dark-money-group/
I agree I have had my fill of Lackless…talk talk talk.Voting for Shannon.